Demand for state school places in London is falling fast, reshaping the admissions landscape for relocating families.

Forecasts across all 32 boroughs show a 4% drop in Year 7 places and a 2% fall in reception places between 2025/26 and 2029/30, with Inner London seeing the steepest decline.

For the first time, demand for secondary places is projected to fall faster than for primary—an important shift for families relocating with older children. As funding is allocated per pupil, councils warn this could trigger £45m in cuts across London schools, increasing the risk of closures and reduced curriculum breadth.

While surplus capacity is most likely to emerge in less popular schools, competition for high-performing schools is expected to intensify—making informed location and school-choice advice even more critical for incoming families.

Demand is also falling in many other areas of the UK – including key cities such as Manchester and Birmingham, though the rate of decline is much lower than London.